01/11/2024

WORLD LEADERS COME TOGETHER IN LIMA AND RIO DE JANEIRO

Meetings with international leaders in global forums are invaluable opportunities to implement foreign policy goals, especially through active presidential diplomacy. Two major gatherings of heads of state will take place in South America in November. On November 15–16, the 21 leaders of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) will meet in Lima. Then, on November 18–19, the G20 leaders will meet in Rio de Janeiro. In the lead-up to these high-profile events, we can see clear differences in how Argentina and Brazil conduct themselves in the international arena today.

Peru, a close ally and friend to our country, will host the upcoming APEC meeting. It will be the third time hosting this event for Lima—and should be an important opportunity for Argentina—as it brings together leaders from 21 Asia-Pacific economies: Australia, Brunei, Canada, Chile, China, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Papua New Guinea, the Philippines, Russia, Singapore, South Korea, Chinese Taipei, Thailand, the United States, Vietnam, and Peru. Several of these economies are key markets for Argentine exports and prominent sources of foreign investment in Argentina.

APEC’s focus is on economic and trade issues, and its work continues despite ideological and political differences among its members, as well as the geopolitical competition between the U.S. and China. These discussions, involving members aligned with the West as well as participants from the BRICS group, gain importance in a global context marked by rising protectionism.

Under the theme "Empower. Include. Grow," the following priorities were established: 1) Trade and investment for inclusive and interconnected growth, 2) Innovation and digitalization to promote the transition to a formal and global economy, and 3) Sustainable growth for resilient development. The Peruvian presidency achieved unanimous approval of the declarations from the ministers responsible for trade, tourism, and a significant ministerial declaration on "Women and the Economy."

Interestingly, our neighbor Brazil, which has no coastline on the Pacific, was invited to Lima. President Lula da Silva accepted the invitation, even though he will be presiding over the G20 leaders’ meeting just two days later. Consequently, Brazil chooses to take part in international forums that it considers important for enhancing its autonomy through economic diversification. Brasília clearly places great importance on its exports to China and other Asian countries that will be attending the meeting. Lula is particularly interested in the Port of Chancay, which was financed by Chinese capital (60%) and Peruvian/international investments (40%). This port will serve as a key outlet for Brazil's exports and will be inaugurated by Xi Jinping during his visit to Lima. Brazil, which does not impose export tariffs, has a trade surplus with China, while Argentina has a trade deficit with China.

In a global context marked by high levels of contention and danger—as noted by Professor Juan Gabriel Tokatlián—Brazil is preparing to host the G20 leaders. This is an event that Argentina successfully organized in 2018 under the presidency of Mauricio Macri. This forum, which brings together the leaders of the 20 most important economies in the world, is a notable example of “leader diplomacy” in recent times. It holds significant symbolic as well as tangible value. There is no other forum where all the leaders of established powers and the BRICS come face to face. Considering existing military conflicts, Brazilian diplomacy has sought to downplay geopolitical discussions, arguing that such matters fall under the scope of the United Nations (UN), while promoting issues related to the fight against poverty, development, and global governance.

In this forum, Argentina surprised many by being the only country not to give its consensus to the declaration from the working group on women's empowerment. This delicate position—together with the one recently adopted at the UN—is already causing more political and diplomatic challenges internationally than benefits and could potentially lead to economic repercussions.

For its part, Brazil hopes to take advantage of the G20 to announce significant progress on the Mercosur-European Union (EU) agreement. It is worth noting that Brazil opposed a series of environmental requirements imposed by the EU, including the so-called Green Pact. Although Emmanuel Macron championed these measures, Lula met with him to reach an understanding in a firm yet civil manner. The negotiations face challenges regarding the trade and sustainable development chapter, and for the moment, the EU has postponed the implementation of the Green Pact.

Beyond its ideological expressions, Brasília pursues a sophisticated and participatory foreign policy, acting constructively in global forums, defending its interests, and striving to achieve tangible results for its citizens. In contrast, the current Argentine government sometimes gives the impression of adopting an anti-participation approach at both regional and international levels, while appearing to take ideological positions—such as its opposition to women's empowerment—that are causing significant backlash without showing any clear benefits. As Machiavelli wrote, “The universality of men is affected both by appearances and by reality, and sometimes appearances have a greater impact than reality itself” It is therefore difficult to confirm whether it is the substance or the style of the Argentine government that causes the most misunderstanding internationally.

Patricio Carmody is a specialist in International Relations. He holds a degree in Industrial Engineering from the University of Buenos Aires (UBA), an MBA from Dartmouth College, and is a doctoral candidate in International Relations at the École des Hautes Études Internationales in Paris. He has completed postgraduate programs at the Kennedy School of Government (Harvard) and Columbia University’s School of International and Public Affairs (SIPA) in partnership with the World Bank. Carmody worked at PepsiCo Inc. for over three decades, where he served as Vice President of Global Marketing for PepsiCo Foods (based in New York), Vice President for the Asia-Pacific region, and Vice President in Brazil, in addition to positions in Spain, Portugal, and Argentina.