23/02/2024

A more unstable world

"….The current military security situation foreshadows what will likely be a more dangerous decade, characterized by the blatant application of military power by some actors to pursue claims and/or achieve objectives - invoking an approach of 'might makes right' - as well as the desire of like-minded democracies to strengthen bi- and multilateral ties in response..."

International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), https://www.iiss.org/publications/the-military-balance/2024/chapter-1-era-of-insecurity/

Diagnoses elaborated by different think tanks in the United States, Europe, and Asia coincide in highlighting trends that confirm the onset of a stage of greater global instability, with the Asia-Pacific and the Indian Ocean being critical zones for international (in)stability. Evidence arises from the analysis and contemplation of qualitative and quantitative indicators such as: i) geographical dispersion and simultaneity of potential scenarios of military conflict in Europe, Asia, the Middle East, and Africa, ii) intra-Atlantic and intra-European tensions, iii) the characteristics of the involved state actors, island states versus continental (China, Russia, Southeast Asia, Japan, Australia), nuclear powers like India, China, Pakistan, and even North Korea vis-à-vis countries with capabilities in the conventional field, iv) the sustained increase in global military spending in response to the perception of growing threats to national security, largely resulting from unresolved historical territorial and insular disputes (for example, China-Japan, Japan-South Korea, China-States bordering Southeast Asia (SEA)), and v) the use of advanced technologies in the quantum, artificial intelligence (AI), and aerospace fields applicable to increasing the belligerent potential of the contenders.

Remnants of residual colonialism that shaped geographies and drew capricious borders until the mid-20th century and the Cold War, in its characterization and dynamics, intertwine ideological factors, religious radicalization, nationalist bias in the external relations of key actors in East Asia and Southwest Asia such as China and India, the recreation of defensive alliances by the United States in the region, and its strategic competition with China.

A direct consequence of the above is the sustained increase in global military spending, with East Asia and Oceania leading the way. According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), global defense spending increased by 9% in 2023 to reach $2.2 trillion, driven primarily by the Russian invasion of Ukraine (this country increased its budget by 64%), the increase in Chinese defense spending (7.1% in 2023), ranking it in second place globally after the United States and representing 43% of total military spending in East Asia, and the modernization plans of their respective arsenals by Japan, South Korea, India, Australia, and SEA countries like Singapore, Malaysia, and Indonesia, all engaged in an arms race that does not foresee a happy ending.

A region in unstable equilibrium and world peace in jeopardy.

In East Asia, two areas concentrate attention due to the possible breakdown of a tottering peace: the unsolved conflict between China and Taiwan and China's sovereignty claims in the so-called South China Sea, including the use of its military power against Southeast Asian coastal nations (e.g., the Philippines, Vietnam) considering it a critical area due to its characteristics as an Indo-Pacific interoceanic corridor, endowment of strategic natural resources (gas and oil), its maritime biodiversity, and its potential role in an eventual maritime blockade by the United States of basic elements for its economy.

Chinese territorial claims are based on "historical reasons" dating back to the imperial era, arguments rejected by coastal states such as Malaysia, Thailand, the Philippines, and Vietnam and which have escalated, causing incidents between Chinese fishing vessels and maritime patrols and those of said countries, in attempts to safeguard sovereign rights in their respective Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZs). A form of action that clashes with the principle of "freedom of navigation" upheld by the United States.

This situation is aggravated by escalating tensions with Taiwan in pursuit of a long awaited reunification, according to President Xi Jinping, to achieve the great ideal of the rejuvenation of the Chinese nation (Chinese dream) by 2049 (centenary of the People's Republic). To achieve this goal, China resorts to a wide range of options including economic attractiveness exerted by the Chinese market on Taiwanese investors, public and private diplomatic pressure (bi- and multilateral) to achieve the rupture of diplomatic relations by countries that still recognize Taiwan as a sovereign nation; finally, military pressure, evident in successive and continuous Chinese maneuvers in the insular environment to deter any separatist attempt. Taiwan, supported by the United States as its main political and military ally, seeks to mitigate these pressures by appealing to the symbolic factor that it represents to world public opinion in the struggle between a democracy and an authoritarian regime. The truth is that continental pressures confirmed Taiwanese preferences for the continuity of a "pro-independence line" in the last elections (January 2024), validated by the victory of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP).

In summary, despite being the most dynamic economic area on the planet, it is in the Asia-Pacific and the Indian Ocean where world peace is at stake. Understanding this, two main reflections emerge: the low probability of interstate conflicts in Latin America and the Caribbean, which reinforces its position as a contributor to global stability, and, secondly, questions about what position our country will adopt in case hostilities erupt, for example, between China and Taiwan, with China being our top trading partner, active investor, and financial support. A war involving China, the United States, and Southeast Asian nations will affect global supplies of goods and services by disrupting regional and global supply chains; therefore, in any case, it will exert pressure on national diplomacy, impulse the redesign of intra- and extra-hemispheric alliances, and produce political and economic costs as yet uncalculated.

Sergio Cesarín is a professor in the Master's program in economics and business in the Asia-Pacific and India. He is a researcher at CONICET and Coordinator of the Center for Studies on the Asia-Pacific and India (CEAPI) of the UNTREF.