09/04/2025

The first Latin American election in the Trump era

Since Donald Trump returned to the presidency, the United States’ agenda toward the region has been shaped by the brutal policy of migrant deportations; threats to Panamanian sovereignty over the Panama Canal, framed within the broader context of the trade war with China; a protectionist offensive against its USMCA partners, Canada and Mexico; and, for progressive and leftist governments, the belligerence symbolized by the appointment of an ultra-conservative Cuban-American politician like Marco Rubio to the State Department.

Due to the fast pace of events after taking office, Trump was late to the negotiations leading up to the election at the Organization of American States. After two highly contested terms of Luis Almagro, which were strongly criticized by progressives in the region, the presidents of Brazil (Lula Da Silva), Chile (Gabriel Boric), Colombia (Gustavo Petro), and the newly inaugurated president of Uruguay (Yamandú Orsi) managed to block the candidacy of Paraguayan Foreign Minister Rubén Ramírez and advance the candidacy of Surinamese Foreign Minister Albert Randim, who already had the support of Caribbean countries.

Apart from the already predicted reelection of John Briceño as Prime Minister of Belize on March 12, the Latin American region will hold its first presidential election in the new Trump era on Sunday, April 13: the elections in Ecuador.

Daniel Noboa was one of the few Latin American presidents present at Trump’s inauguration, and last year he received the approval of now-Secretary Marco Rubio for his hardline security policy. His condescension toward the United States is clearly visible in his intention to reform the constitution, with his proposal to amend Article 5 of the 2008 Constitution of Montecristi, which prohibits the establishment of foreign military bases.

The possibility of having a regional stronghold, which was blocked for the United States during the era of Correa, and the opportunity presented by Noboa to sign a free trade agreement, make this election a zero-sum game for Donald Trump. It is a choice between advancing a relationship of automatic alignment or having to adapt to Ecuador's sovereign interests and constitutional considerations.

The final stretch toward the election

The results of the first electoral round on February 9 revealed a political system marked by polarization. Despite the fragmentation typical of the Ecuadorian party system, which resulted in an election with 16 presidential candidates, electoral preferences narrowed the choices for the second round to two major political options, one from the right and one from the left.

This polarization can be seen as a victory for President Daniel Noboa, who has established himself as the dominant right-wing and anti-Correista option in Ecuador. Of course, as the incumbent, and with state resources at his disposal, his path seems to have been paved in contrast to other right-wing factions, tainted by the trajectory of Guillermo Lasso’s government, which many of them supported.

An important point is that President and candidate Daniel Noboa decided to disregard the constitutional mandate requiring him to request a leave of absence for his electoral campaign. This decision was strongly criticized by the opposition, and as a result, there are several complaints against him in the Electoral Court, which has yet to rule on the matter. This reflects a prevailing climate: the politicization of justice in Latin America and around the world.

Given that 88% of the electorate voted for the two candidates who reached the second round, the key lies in the remaining 12%. The ever-present undecided voters, who today represent 1 in 10 Ecuadorians, share certain characteristics: a young population, a distrust of politics, a focus on concrete solutions for security and employment, and a tendency to make their decision on the day of the election.

One of the keys analysts point to for the second round of voting seems to lie with the Indigenous electorate, which came in third place in the first round under the leadership of Leónidas Iza, president of CONAIE, who in recent weeks stated that his movement’s decision is “not to give a single vote to the Ecuadorian right led by President Noboa.”

Along the same lines, on March 30, Guillermo Churuchumbi of the Plurinational Unity Movement Pachakutik, the political arm of the Indigenous movement, signed an agreement with the Revolución Ciudadana candidate, Luisa González.

However, the fragmentation the Indigenous movement has shown in recent elections, along with its regional heterogeneity (Coast, Highlands, and Amazon region), makes it impossible to project a direct transfer of votes.

In the face of such a highly contested electoral scenario, with political forces that distrust the electoral authority and a global and regional trend of increasing fraud narratives, Ecuador will face a major test next Sunday in terms of democratic consolidation — one that will have a significant impact on the region and is being closely watched by Washington.

*Dolores Gandulfo is the Director of the Electoral Observatory of the Permanent Conference of Political Parties of Latin America and the Caribbean (COPPPAL) and of the Advanced Diploma in Comparative Electoral Systems at the National University of Tres de Febrero (UNTREF). She is a member of the Observatory of Political Reforms in Latin America and the Network of Female Political Scientists.

Additionally, she is part of the Latin American Advisory Council of the Institute for Democratic Transitions (IFIT), the Argentine Association of International Relations Studies (AERIA), and the Juan Atilio Bramuglia Peronist Foreign Policy Center.

She is also a university professor at the Scalabrini Ortiz National University (UNSO), National University of San Martín (UNSAM), and University of Salvador (USAL).